Canadians keep returning to the U.S. for a fifth month, but remain 27% below 2024

The Canadian market heading into the United States has now posted five consecutive months of growth, according to national data reported by Skift. That sounds encouraging until you put it in context, because volume is still 27% below 2024 levels. In other words, the recovery is moving, but it is nowhere near closing the gap opened by the initial drop.

The interesting part is that most people expected the opposite, fewer trips because of trade tensions between the two countries. The national figure says otherwise. But watch out, because the rebound is not uniform. Some states are capturing that Canadian return better than others, and that asymmetry matters a lot for anyone selling a destination in North America.

My read is simple. The Canadian traveller has not broken up with the United States, they have just changed the pace and probably the type of trip. For hotels, airlines and OTAs exposed to that route, the opportunity lies in sharper segmentation: identifying which states and which profiles are coming back, and adjusting rate and distribution to that behaviour instead of waiting for the market to heal on its own.